2023 road cycling season - preview.

This is going to be very long, but I hope it will be worth reading. Every year during the off-season I prepare a very long article, either analyzing or trying to make some preview-like assumptions. Last year, I did research on the youth (which sort of worked), and this year I decided to do a season preview. The concept is largely similar for all teams: I've asked 2-3 honest questions about each World Tour organizations, for which I really hope we'll get answers during the season. There will be some that many of you will agree with, and some that you will not.

Enjoy the article, let's start with the best team of last year.

Team Jumbo-Visma

1. Who will be the alpha male among the goats?

The biggest problem for Jumbo-Visma in 2023 will still be the question of leadership in big races, although it seems that things have settled down. Jonas Vingegaard's victory in the Tour de France has opened new horizons for the team, they can actually behave like a dominant force as they have 2 legit, Grand Tour winning contenders, they can play chess about who can go where, when, with what helpers. At the same time, perhaps the world's most unlucky superstar to date, Primoz Roglic, felt that after 2 years of bad luck and early abandonment it was time for a change, so he chose Giro as his primary goal – if you ask me, it’s not a bad idea, it’s actually clever from him to regain his reputation in the team. Whatever the outcome will be for the two stars, it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on the programme, the strength and mental state of the two riders as the season progresses.

2. Wout van Aert – and no one else?

Every year the question arises whether Wout van Aert can do the Flanders-Roubaix double. Because if someone can do it, he is the one. However, something always comes up - illness, injury or simply one of his rivals beating him, and I’d say they do it very comfortably. This year, he'll be running that mission again, but Jumbo, somewhat being more cautious and prepared to prevent the Wout-addiction, has signed/developed riders over the last 1-2 years who can help the team even when the Belgian superstar is unavailable. Dylan van Baarle won the Paris-Roubaix last year with the race of his life and INEOS' masterful tactics, now it seems a repeat is not out of the question for the Dutch, Christophe Laporte has brought us perhaps the biggest comeback story of the last year and Nathan van Hooydonck could soon move from a supporting role to a starring one, it might happen as soon as next year. It will be exciting to see if van Aert sweeps everything or if the guys with the classic specialists team up for a collective total domination.

3. Will Jumbo finally start to appreciate Olav Kooij in a proper way?

It's incredible to think that Olav Kooij is only 21 years old and has won 12 races in 2022 alone. He is a diamond and a ‘watt-lion’ of which there are very few in the world at the moment, and among the youngsters he can be perhaps only compared to Arnaud de Lie. Yet no one thinks he could be taken to the Tour, as van Aert's place is granted, there is not much room for other sprinters because of the mountain and flat helpers. And that is frustrating. And it makes me feel a bit sad that a team like this is misusing such talent. And it might annoy him a little bit, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't renew his contract, which expires in 2023, and instead bounces to another team where he'll get every chance to develop and start chasing his big goals, of which he'll surely have plenty in his long career.

UAE - Team Emirates

1. How effective will this year's arsenal of the one-man Slovenian army be?

You can't leave Slovenian superstar Tadej Pogacar out of this list. In fact you have to start with him, because the last 3 years have shown that despite all the financial help, despite being surrounded by a seemingly great team, Jumbo-Visma swallowed him in whole in the second and third weeks of the Tour in 2022, and his extra class performance was the only reason for his victory in 2020 and ‘21. However, despite all the criticisms, it is important to note that despite being 24 years old, he was ranked in the top 3 in the world for the third year in a row, which is an incredibly rare and valuable feature. The joke in this fact is that in normal career years, the peak period would be just around the corner - this is obviously being pushed forward for Pogacar because of his early career start. The program, the strength level and the team will really decide whether this is gonna be "just" an excellent or legendary season from him.

2. Retool time - will there finally be a real second option to Pogacar?

The UAE's biggest concern in recent years has been the lack of a second option, and perhaps the most pressing issue for them is finally finding a rider who can deliver alongside the Slovenian superstar. Many, many people have talked about the Joao Almeida problem, and I will do the same now: after 3 years, it now seems that he can only win a Grand Tour in a relatively weak field with relatively high luck. And I say that now with great sadness, because I like him very much and I think he is a great talent. It was a mistake for Quick-Step to let him go, but a huge, a much larger mistake is now being made by the UAE by apparently misusing him on some level. It seems to me that they've put all the money on Juan Ayuso, the Spanish teenager who showed definite upside in his first full adult pro year, if the Vuelta had been a little shorter, he might even have had a podium. This year he will try the Vuelta with an Evenepoel tactic, I will be very curious to see how this plan turns out.

3. The true test of the Zwift babies, or is there any value of superiority in the online space?

After long weeks and months of negotiations, former Zwift (an online platform where amateur cyclists can compete against each other on wheels) world champion Jay Vine, giving up on captaincy in Alpecin next year, has in fact signed on as a sixth man to help the Tour/Giro mountain train. Obviously, money was a big factor here, but I hope Jay also sees this as a professional challenge that, if he grows to it, might coming another level ahead of him: a captaincy role with any World Tour team. He will be joined by Michael Vink, also from Australia, which has generally shocked all the pundits within the sport as he has no high-profile experience of road cycling. Whether this is a marketing ploy or whether the UAE has really caught the goldfish will be decided in a year or so.

INEOS Grenadiers

1. Rejuvenation completed – what now?

Perhaps one of the most crucial problems INEOS has faced in recent years has been one of attrition - a large and successful generation has passed on and there was no one to take their place. So, in retrospect, perhaps a little too late, rejuvenation has happened, and now, they have perhaps one of the best young cores in the world, almost any of whom could win a big race in the future. However, we can't expect any of the Thymen Arensman - Carlos Rodriguez Cano - Leo Hayter - Dani Martinez quartet to win a Grand Tour next year. It will be a bit of a test year, a period of transition, the team will have to see who they can count on as a leader in longer term and who might be a second or third option to help the team achieve its goals.

2. Can a 20-year-old American guy be the Swiss Army knife of the team?

I left Magnus Sheffield's name out of my previous list, but maybe I should have started with him. We're talking about the biggest talent in American cycling, who made his professional debut last year but showed his quality in his first few months. He's got time trial skills, tactics, climbing, brains (which a lot of young riders don't have to this extent…) and it's embarrassing to admit, but he’s made me sit on his hype train. The best thing, and somewhere currently the worst thing is that at this point no one knows what his limits are. He could be a one-day specialist, he could be a genius climber, he really has almost everything it takes to be a star... and if injuries avoid him, he could easily replace his top 100 status from last year with a top 50, possibly a top 30 in 2023 already.

3. The curse of the classics is finally broken, but can they start a new series?

Dylan van Baarle's win at Roubaix was a redemption of sorts for the team, as it gave them their first monument, breaking a barrier that had been holding them back in the biggest one-day races. Although the Dutchman is no longer a member of the team, fortunately there are plenty of riders in the squad capable of making a big roaring stunt. Poland's Kwiatkowski, for example, is the defending champion at the Amstel, and in Liege, for example, could have one last boom, as could Luke Rowe at Roubaix. Among the youngsters, the British contingent led by Tom Pidcock is worth highlighting here - although the defending cyclocross world champion didn't have an outstanding road season last year, he could beat the best at any time in his prime - and his prime career years are still way ahead of him. INEOS has an incredibly deep squad, perhaps the deepest of any teams, and I'm excited to see what Sir Dave Brailsford's witch's kitchen will be cooking up in 2023.

Bora-Hansgrohe

1. Which face of Jai Hindley will we see in 2023?

A very interesting pattern is now beginning to emerge for Jai Hindley's career in long term. In odd years, for whatever reason, he performs below his ability, but in even years he performs at or slightly above his ability - the pay-off was being a Giro win in '22. What the current odd year might bring for him is a very good question, and one that is frankly difficult to answer. He'd give everything from himself to be the defending champion in the Giro, but I'd still like him to participate at the Tour, because there are stages there now that would suit him, and obviously the low time trial kilometres could be a huge factor in his favour. Everyone is a bit clueless about him, and that could be a positive for him individually and as a team, we'll see where his season goes already at the Tour Down Under in mid-January.

2. Where are the ceilings of Vlasov and Higuita?

Given his excellence in the one-week races last season and the fact that the peak period is coming very soon, we must ask this question. Vlasov timed his own form terribly well in 2022, building himself up admirably with the Valencia-UAE Tour-Basque Tour-Romandy-Switzerland Tour arc, at which point he was caught by the looming curse of the mighty covid... and albeit it's fair to say that even without the illness he wouldn't have stood a chance against the Vingegaard-Pogacar duo, but a podium would have been a strong possibility. Higuita did likewise, although poor race management played a large role in his burnout at Vuelta, yet, he more than maxed out the first half of the season by winning the Tour of Catalunya. Of course, both of them will have plenty of chances to get on a Grand Tour podium, but they will need to be in much better shape than ever before in terms of strength and tactics.

3. The German squad - can last year's memorable season be repeated?

There will be 10 German riders on the team in 2023, and many of them are set for a big breakout. Personally, I expect a lot from neo-pro Florian Lipowitz, he has already proven himself to be a great climber at lower levels, it's time to step up to the World Tour. Max Schachmann's season last year was a disappointment, health problems of course played a part in that, I'm definitely expecting a bounceback season from him. Nils Politt has developed into a very versatile rider in recent years, but in classic races, he has not fully realised his potential, and I expect him to make a start on that next year with a podium in the spring races. And I haven't even mentioned Emu Buchmann or Lennard Kamna... It's a deep roster, no matter where you look at it, and I expect them to win at least 8-10 races and repeat last year's successful season.

Soudal-Quick Step

1. Is it possible to perform at a higher level than in an MVP season?

There's no denying it, Remco Evenepoel thoroughly deserved every accolade he received for being the best of last season. The run he produced from the very end of July to the end of September was one to remember, soaring and in fact, wherever he started, whatever peloton he raced in, he won everywhere. As we have learned, his real goal for 2023 is the Giro, so he is taking a step up the unofficial Grand Tour ladder and going to the toughest race of them all, where he will face plenty of very steep climbs and 3x time trials. And where we will find out another dimension of Evenepoel, as we have seen how well he has adapted to the altitude and the heat, we will now see how the hyper-talented Belgian copes with the extreme cold.

2. Catfight among the sprinters - can Tim Merlier be a good solution?

As soon as Fabio Jakobsen could have been relieved about being the team's absolute number one sprinter from 2023, they signed Tim Merlier, who has become a rhythmical rider in recent years but is in the top 3 in his field on his best days. Do we understand it? Honestly, it is a fact that both sprinters have similar attributes, they can both be at the end of flat stages and finish well, but as soon as any small climb comes along, they'll be off the peloton and back in the grupetto. One of these riders can fit in the team, but 2, precisely, being the fastest 2 guys, is a bit much. They can't help each other, plus they can't start at the same time, + one of the key sprinters Michael Morkov has left - the question is how well his replacement, compatriot Casper Pedersen, will work out. There are many questions, perhaps too many, about the sprinters, with the potential for a negative spiral.

3. The core of the frame is unchanged, is there potential for improvement?

In short, there is. In long: Last year the bad period came in the most unfortunate period for Quick-Step, as during the spring classic campaign, several guys from the leaders were struggling with illness or injury, and while the neo-pros didn't do too badly, there were a lot of points missing in the end of year reckoning. If everyone is healthy, which hopefully will be the case, the quintet of Lampaert-Senechal-Ballerini-Vernon-van Tricht, with the addition of Alaphilippe or Asgreen, could return to a very high level and on the Belgian classics they can win two or three important ones. In any case, I'm hoping for a bounceback year and a big comeback from last year's injuries.

Intermarche-Circus-Wanty

1. They finally have a beloved franchise rider. Will they maximise his potential next year?

One of the biggest stories of 2022 was Biniam Girmay's breakout year. Without a doubt, one of the biggest moments of the year was his Gent-Wevelgem win, as well as his sprint victory on the Giro and the white jersey he wore for a day (which I had the pleasure of seeing live). Obviously, after the accident with the champagne cork, his form has stalled a bit and the second half of the season has not been so rich in outstanding results, but his consistency has a lot of positives for the future. His goal for 2023 is the Tour de France, both spoken and unspoken, where he will have a chance to win a stage based on the stage profiles, but it should be remembered that there is a World Championships in Glasgow immediately afterwards, where he is one of the main favourites based on what we know at the moment. Can the young Eritrean become the first African world champion in history? We will soon find out...

2. What will happen to last year's mythical mountain train?

Last year Intermarché had a surprisingly good season on the mountains, too. Domenico Pozzovivo had a blooming season, followed up by Jan Hirt and Louis Meintjes with amazing top 10 finishes in Grand Tours. 2023 will be a huge question from this point of view: Hirt is no longer part of the team, Pozzovivo is without a contract for the time being, the South African veteran is the only one of the classic climbers left, and as we know, one swallow doesn't make a summer. The one rider the team can still rely on is Lorenzo Rota - he may not be a climber, but his development graph has been unbroken over the last three years and 2023 could be the year when his first big win finally happens.

3. There is a promising young core - what can Aike Visbeek bring out of them?

Intermarche's coaching staff became famous last year for bringing out things from riders who showed no potential/lacked potential at their age that no one else expected. This year, however, they should prove themselves from a different angle, as they have a lot of youngsters with great potential who can show their lion's claws in their first/second professional seasons. Estonia's Madis Mihkels won a stage against a host of BikeExchange riders on Tour of Estonia, then went on to finish 5th at the U23 Worlds and 6th at Gran Piemonte, both on a route that didn't particularly favour sprinters, which could mean we have a very versatile rider on our hands. Hugo Page is already a more sprint-specialised rider, with a number of great results in 2022, but the big explosion is still to come. Dries de Pooter has similar qualities, only I think he is a year behind Page in terms of development, and he could show some positive things. An exciting squad, they might not be as productive as they were in 2022, but Intermarche could remain one of the favourite teams for hipsters.

Groupama-FDJ

1. Now or never - this is David Gaudu's motto for 2023.

The French star may never have a better chance of a Tour de France podium than in 2023. The few time trial kilometres, the many mountains, the strength of the team all suggest that he will get a once-in-a-lifetime chance as the current best French climber. Fourth place in 2022 proved that he can compete with the best, but 13 minutes behind Vingegaard suggests somewhat the opposite. He'll have a relatively strong team around him, with lots of youngsters, the chemistry within the team shouldn't be a problem... and even though he's only 26, you really feel that this could be one of his last big shots in the main event of the year, because the youngsters are certainly coming and they're very biting and good...

2. New Kids on the Block - who will shine brightest?

The FDJ has implemented a very distinctive strategy for 2023, calling up 7 riders from the development team to the elite, and for most of them it was a well-deserved invitation. How each one completes is a very different question, but I will be watching Lenny Martinez very closely, for example, the little Frenchman has already shown great ambition in his junior year and last year he was already doing well in elite races. Romain Gregoire was also a regular starter in French Cup races and the former junior World Championships runner-up has shown that he is a force to be reckoned with. And on the speedy, sprinter bits, Frenchman Paul Penhoet and Briton Sam Watson could be the standouts. Obviously, this strategy will have negative short-term repercussions and minor setbacks, but over the three-year cycle it was a huge positive and a timely decision by the team.

3. Arnaud Demare - 100?

A clear target for the team's all-time leading sprinter is reaching 100 professional wins, he would like to somehow add nine to his current 91 wins to reach the mythical triple-digit number that could catapult him to the top of the sport's all-time list. If you look at his form in last year's Giro, where he was almost untouchable, that could be a no-brainer, but if you look at his otherwise scattered, rhapsodic performances, you might say it's not going to happen this year. He's not helped by the departure of both Guarnieri and Sinkeldam from his sprint train, so he's got a whole new line-up to lead him out, which will take a lot of time and energy to get acquainted with it, too. There are two paths ahead of him, either he takes the hard way and tries to get his hundred in World Tour/Grand Tour races, or he goes the statpadding route and wins a bunch of smaller races, the easy and less than honourable way... but it could be the way to achieve the coveted goal this year.

Alpecin-Deceuninck

1. Is there life beyond Mathieu van der Poel?

You can't help but start the Alpecin season recap here, as the Dutch superstar has been the alpha and omega of the team for several years now. Rumour has it that in 2023 he wants to move a little more towards mountain biking, and Alpecin has gone in a direction with the squad so that the team won't feel the absence of the Dutchman in the event of a several-month absence. That said, van der Poel will start the spring Belgian-French-Dutch classics, but there will be plenty of B/A2 options. For example, Soren Kragh Andersen, who has moved here from DSM and who has been in a bit of a slump over the last two years - but is now ready to get his career back on track. Or Quinten Hermans, another new signing, who had one of his breakout years in 2022 - and while it will be hard to move on from here, he'll have plenty of opportunity to do so at Alpecin.

2. They have the best sprinter pair in Philipsen and Groves.

This may be a very subjective opinion, but after looking at all the squads, I'd say they're probably even stronger than the van Aert-Kooij duo. Maybe it's because almost everyone in the team will really be there to some degree to see these two young guys win it all. Philipsen finally got to the top last year, he's in the A league of sprinters with his consistency and the watts he's been producing, and Kaden Groves is amazingly fast, but he's still missing that last step of consistency based on my eye test. They have both improved in surviving the climbs during any stages, although there is room for improvement in this and I think they complement each other well. It will be a question of who goes to which Grand Tour, obviously neither would give up the chance to go to the Tour, but someone has to give in, here I see potential banana skins for collaboration...

3. There is a huge hole in the climber position - is it possible to stay at World Tour level without any climbers?

With the departure of Jay Vine there is a huge hole in the pure climber position, and looking at the 30-man roster, there is no rider to fill that void... Tobias Bayer started out as a great talent in this field but has really got into diverse ways in the last 1.5-2 years, if he could find his way back then he could possibly be a suitable as a somewhat forced replacement, but if not... Actually, the main problem with this is that they are taking away a lot of important UCI points from themselves, and in the long run, after the current promotion, this could mean elimination in the next period. They will be obliged to make a big move in this area in the next period, or as an emergency solution, no matter how unethical it may be, to sign Nairo Quintana as a free agent and send someone down to the development squad, but that's not going to happen. It will be very interesting to see what they do and whether this solution will cause them any discomfort this season.

EF-Education EasyPost

1. A five-star transfer period - but will it deliver tangible results?

Several teams have had a good transfer season, but if we look at the EF, perhaps only they can be said to have had a flawless transfer season. First and foremost, they have acquired Richard Carapaz, who is still in his prime, having had 3 podiums in 3 different Grand Tours in the last 3 years, an achievement that alone puts him among the best, not to mention his performance in the one-week races. We're talking about a real reinforcement, who, although he won't have the help in the mountains that much he was used to have at INEOS, I'm pretty sure he'll do a great job. Other notable reinforcements include Mikkel Frolich Honoré, who after a magical 2021 and a 2022 plagued by lack of motivation and illness, is trying to get his results back on track with renewed energy, and his compatriot Magnus Cort will probably be a big help in this quest.

2. Andrea Piccolo show - Act 2.

And that's not even mentioning the most important transfer, because although technically Andrea Piccolo arrived in the middle of last season from the ill-fated Drone Hopper, he is still one of this year's new arrivals. I have no words for the young Italian. Anyone who followed him as a junior could see that he was already a complex competitor then, he excelled there as a freshman, then there was a career lull... and here again we have to praise Jonathan Vaughters' eye and flair for acquisitions, it took him great big balls to sign him... but after 3 months you can say it worked totally. It's hard to see what will stop him succeeding in 2023, and his strengths seem to be long races, which are rare for youngsters. I'd throw him in the Flanders, he has a knack for hilly races and I think he'd handle the cobbles well, and with a bit of luck he could even do something outstanding..

3. Does Rigoberto Uran have one last big shot?

I was already a little down on Uran last year, but at the end of the season he confirmed the theory I've been building towards him over the past few years, that he plays his cards for one Tour/race day every year and really is the best in the world that day and no one can beat him. And in a way, that's okay with me. There are few people in this sport as sympathetic to me as Uran, and I'm glad he's adding another year to his career. Fortunately, with a strong South American, Colombian and Ecuadorian line-up, he feels almost at home, and that could help him achieve one last big result. And I wish him well, because he really is a man with a huge heart, and I would love to sit down with him for a coffee and talk about life. If you're new to cycling and want to pick a favourite, he should be one of the first people you root for!

Movistar Team

1. The key question: is Enric Mas really ready to be in contention for Grand Tours consistently?

Six months ago I was very uncertain about the future of Movistar, as they were full of good but horribly inconsistent climbers... then came the Vuelta, where perhaps the shock of the swan song of legend Alejandro Valverde redeemed Enric Mas, who was until then just a good GC man. What happened in the last two months of the season is perhaps only comparable to the story of Sleeping Beauty. He was close to par with Evenepoel at the Vuelta and drew the final period of the season against Pogacar in the Italian autumn races. But the key thing about this was that he did it in a very un-Enric Mas way. He changed his racing style from a very passive, barely attacking style to a total offensive one and became a very explosive rider, which surprisingly suited him terribly well. He'll be the alpha and omega of the team in 2023, no question, with a relatively ok mountain line in the Tour expected. Can he win a Grand Tour? With few time trial kilometres and good form timing, I can now say yes. Will he win it in 2023? I'm taking a gamble and saying yes. You can take that as a hot take, but the transformation he's going through is astonishing and he would deserve it very much...

2. And the others?

Yeah... That's why there will be only two questions instead of three for Movistar, because everything is so centred around Mas that we forget that this squad is full of talented people, although we are starting to say that they are more a home for wasted talent than proven ones. For example, we have our Colombian duo Einer Rubio and Ivan Sosa, who can really light up a race and look like the next icons of the Colombian climber generation - but that's followed by 3 months of total sinking, when you even have to look for their names with a magnifying glass on the start lists. In this respect, Mas' main armourer could be Carlos Verona, who had the season of his life last year and I have a feeling he could go one level better this year in every way. There are the riders who perform in the classics, such as Gonzalo Serrano, who won the British Tour last year in pretty lousy conditions, an Ivan Garcia Cortina, who doesn't win much but has been surprisingly consistent lately, or an Alex Aranburu, who, when in good form is capable of anything, but hasn't shown much of that in the last year and a half. And then the sprinters. Max Kanter wouldn't have done much in the long run, so they signed Fernando Gaviria, who has fallen out of favour at UAE... somewhere inside I think this is an excellent decision, but in the meantime, there is no real leadout, he will have to create and create the situations himself, and that won't be easy. In a nutshell, Movistar have found their franchise man for the next few years, but from a squad building point of view, the team will have plenty to do in the coming winter transfer window.

Team Jayco-Alula

1. A retool around Simon Yates - can it work?

Team Jayco Alula have chosen an interesting strategy to strengthen their squad, and I wouldn't say it's fundamentally a bad tactic. Simon Yates has remained the number one climber in the team, and I think he will certainly retain that franchise for the next 2-3 years, while the other riders of his profile have changed and rejuvenated. They've got Bardiani's best climber, current Italian champ Filippo Zana, one of Germany's brightest U23 talents Felix Engelhardt, and Irishman Eddie Dunbar from INEOS, who won the Tour of Hungary in 2022 but haven’t had no serious GC ambitions so far (that will change in 2023 if rumours are true). This retool is interesting, because you wouldn't think anyone would be that good himself, but at the same time you feel that this is the area where the team has improved the most.

2. Did they bet on the wrong horse by prioritising Groenewegen?

I can't be nearly as optimistic about the sprinters. In some ways, for me, it was an unforgivable sin to let go of Kaden Groves, the homegrown guy who would have been a very dominant sprinter in the post-Ewan era. They simply didn't appreciate him enough, didn't give him the baton, and instead kept (well, they couldn't have done much else) Groenewegen who was actually bought out of his contract, who will always atone on some level for the incident with his compatriot, and who still put up consistently good numbers last year, Tour stage wins. If you look at it from a results point of view, it's probably a defensible decision in terms of the present, but in terms of identity and the future, I increasingly feel that they've backed the wrong horse. But I can still be convinced otherwise... :)

3. Mentoring roles

It was fun watching Belgian races for a long time because you could pretty much assume that if you saw a Jayco rider out front, it was either Matthew Hayman, Luke Durbridge or Michael Matthews. I think that's now gone. From 2023, the team will include one of the best of the current generation of Czechs, Zdenek Stybar, who in his final years is proving ready to play a mentoring role of sorts, helping either Matthews or the youngsters, both Kelland O'Brien and Campbell Stewart have shown encouraging things... and that's something we need and have lacked in the team. There was a sense that there was too much ego and too little performance. However, what this whole restructure has done is that there is now a nice mix of youngsters and more experienced riders, it's quite Australian but also international, there is still a sort of modern identity to the team and that's good. After suffering for the last 1-2 years, I'm definitely expecting a very positive season from them and a big signing in the transfer market next year.

Bahrain-Victorious

1. Many good climbers can fit in small spaces - but will there be any magic?

Basically, Bahrain-Victorious is a very interesting team, with a lot of great climbers, but we are talking about an ageing structure that is slowly living out its last days in this form. Mikel Landa did perform a minor miracle to finish on the podium in the Giro last year, but perhaps we can now give up on him ever winning a Grand Tour - of course, the Landismo legend will have many of us cheering for him this season. Pello Bilbao is the other Spaniard in the squad, he's a very good one-week specialist, but he's never finished higher than 5th in a Grand Tour, a result he achieved just last year. Wout Poels and Damiano Caruso probably don't have the upside to improve on their career bests either... and then there's Gino Mader, who I thought in 2021 could be one of the best in the world in 2-3 years, but last year he had a near tragic season... I'll be curious to see which rung of the rollercoaster he sits on this year and whether he can return to the high level he's seen before.

2. Will the new Italian sprinter star be born?

The unfortunate early retirement of Sonny Colbrelli has left a big gap in several areas, both in the classic position (more on that in point 3) and in the sprinter position. However, in the second half of last year, Jonathan Milan, who was already a world star in track cycling, finally seemed to rise to the occasion after his earlier mishaps and started to win and finish in the top 5s consistently, and although these were not from the most important races, they were indicative of the fact that if he really concentrates on his job and racing, great things can come out of it in the future. And the team seems to be giving him all the help he needs, as his compatriot Andrea Pasqualon and German Nikias Arndt will be mentoring him/may be useful in the sprint train, they are underrated transfers to some extent. A thought about the transfers: they have used a very strange system of transfers, picking riders from many continental teams to replace the departures, I don't think anyone in the history of the sport has done this at such a high level, I will be curious to see if the concept will work.

3. Will there be a Slovenian-British co-production in the spring classics?

Now there's the question of the classics, where there are two people whom everyone should be paying close attention to - Matej Mohoric and Fred Wright. They're both a bit like Swiss Army knives, sprinting down hills like Johnny Knoxville when they need to, or showing off their bike-handling skills on cobbles. What is particularly interesting is that Mohoric is trying to assert himself in a totally different area, Flanders and the Walloon hills after his San Remo victory, although anyone who saw the race can probably confirm that this was a one-off and unrepeatable type of victory. And Wright is a very interesting character, he can sprint, a lot of people underrate him, some I think overrate him... perhaps the thing he lacks most is the killer instinct, which after so many second places he is rightly lacking. If he can bring it next year, he'll win a big race, I can assure you.

TREK-Segafredo

1. Is the main favourite for the World Championships here?

Because I think, honestly and clearly, that Mads Pedersen is the front-runner for the 2023 World Championships in Glasgow. That may sound strange coming from a man who has never been a huge favourite of the Dane, but his performances in recent months have completely convinced me that he could be a legit favourite in the Scottish terrain. He finally got his first stage win at the Tour... from the breakaway, which made the whole success even more delicious, and then he enhanced it with a points jersey at the Vuelta. He's scheduled to go to the Giro, and the triple crown looks within his reach, I think, based on the stage profiles. Can he get back into form twice in one season? Not impossible, but he will need all the help he can get from the team to achieve his goals.

2. There's another Dane we need to talk about...

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen is by far the most prominent member of an otherwise incredibly rich young core. Last year was a breakthrough year for him, he finally got his first win on the Luxembourg Tour after so many podiums, his podium at the Wollongong World Championships was most likely down to the last few hundred metres, and at 22 he became the king of 2.1 and 2.Pro races at the end of last season. The basic argument would be that in the coming years, his potential path to success is to win in World Tour races, Grand Tours, maximising his potential, but I would make a different point. Basically, at that age, you should have at least one Grand Tour result that is significant, a stage win, a legendary breakaway, or top 10 at the final classification. Despite a good climber's record, Jensen has none of those, and it made me wonder how good an idea it would be for him to concentrate on one-day races in 2023. We've seen that he can handle long races, he can handle tough conditions, I think he's basically a good tactician and he's surrounded by a good team. That's where I'd start him and I think that's where the young Dane will make his first big breakthrough.

3. Oh, the lovely youth… can you not love them?

Many teams have young asset accumulation at this point - but Trek probably seems to have the best concept in this regard. For example, there is Thibau Nys, who is clearly approaching the road racing from a cyclocross direction, and who is intended to be a clear successor to Jasper Stuyven in the very long term, a real project, but slow water washes ashore and something big could come out of it. Mathias Vacek is more of a man of the moment, his second place at the U23 Worlds is a sign of that, and he has already shown encouraging signs at the end of the season, he still needs to get used to World Tour level, but that could be fully done in a year or two. Then there is the Italian duo of Antonio Tiberi and Filippo Baroncini, I expect Tiberi to have a season like Skjelmose's, where he can consistently perform at the elite level, and Baroncini to improve after his first poor professional season. And then there's the newly-acquired Natnael Tesfatsion, who I think has been held back from realising his huge potential by a lack of technique he wasn’t getting at Drone Hopepr, and who could be given the chance to show the world who he is in 2023. The choice is in your hands, decide whose career you will follow closely :)

Team DSM

1. Will this be Romain Bardet's real last dance?

Last year was a big positive boost for Romain Bardet, as he rebounded after the team change and showed amazing form in the first half of the season, dominating the Alps and had a chance to win the Giro when an unfortunate and sudden illness snatched away his chance to win. There was also a point in the Tour when he was on the podium in the GC, but double fatigue in the Giro-Tour meant he had no strength left for the final days. We are entering the final years of a very long career of him and it is a big question whether we can expect any great results from him, especially as he is almost the only climber left of the team who is considered to be on the top level, apart from a few promising youngsters of course. I hope that he will show one last time what the French heart and mind can do and how much he can renew himself one last time.

2. New Kids on the block - how will the talent factory fare?

For those of you who don't know DSM, they are a talent factory, present in the sport from a very young age and producing at least 2-3 talents every year, who either start their professional careers with them or move on to another team. This year that big talent is likely to be Oscar Onley. The young Scotsman shone most in the U23 category last year, but at the same time he has been given a chance among the adults this season, and he also got the better of Tour winner Vingegaard on the Croatian Tour. Somehow, exceptional Scottish talents have not yet come out of the hands of coaches at any team, but that could change with him. It is also important to mention the climber Lorenzo Milesi, the Italian direction has not been dominant at DSM so far, but Milesi is showing the germ of potential, as his victory in the last stage of last year's L'Avenir showed. Among the sprinters, I would like to draw your attention to Casper van Uden, a very fast Dutch guy who was already great in smaller races last year and is now ready to take on the elite. And of the more established guys, Andreas Leknessund is one I'll be following closely, his GC win at Arctic Race was something we don't often see in races.

DSM is really... weird. Because the concept is perfectly rational, you have to fill the squad with 3-4 newcomers from the top 30 youth riders every year... but somehow the hit rate has seemed very low to me in the last 2-3 years on an eyetest. And in this, if they want to stay in the World Tour for a very long time, they should improve... A lot will depend on Onley and van Uden in this coming period.

Astana Qazaqstan Team

1. How big the holes are in this team...

Because perhaps the biggest news of the off-season was that the team's lone climber for 2023, Miguel Angel Lopez... let's just say he left the team due to dubious affairs and doping-related business. And that's something that really affects the overall profile of the team, as there are no meaningful climber left in the current 28+2 squad. Unless Alexey Lutsenko and David de la Cruz can be considered as such, which they can be, but they are far from the elite level, and the youngsters Tejada, Garofoli and Fedorov will have to make a big leap to even compete to keep their World Tour membership. It will be a very difficult three years for the Kazakhs, but there are two glimmers of hope that should give them cause for optimism.

2. Ciao, Italia - will the Italians pull the team out of the lurch?

There's potential for improvement here too... Although Vincenzo Nibali's retirement leaves a deep mark on the Italian contingent, there are still names here from whom to expect a lot. One of the most hated members of the peloton, Gianni Moscon, for example, who hasn't done a damn thing since his heroic failure at Paris-Roubaix 2021. He shouldn't necessarily recover physically, but mentally, he should finally get himself sorted enough to believe he can do anything. Samu Battistella is the other shining star, the young former U23 world champion is improving slowly from season to season, but by the end of the next 3-year cycle he should be one of the leaders in the team to achieve bigger goals. The third main Italian here is Christian Scaroni, but it would be a big achievement for him to make a good progress in 2023, he should score plenty of points and then I think Vinokourov and the management will be happy with him.

Arkea-Samsic

1. The evil has gone - what impact will this have on the team?

Nairo Quintana, the Colombian star, has left the team after his doping scandal, which is basically a positive thing as there is no longer a member of the team who brought problems to the whole organisation. However, he was perhaps the only one who, unlike the others, could do something world class: climb mountains. He was by far the best climber and rider on the team, even with his routine and lacking time trial skills, and there were many aspects of the whole Quintana phenomenon that were valuable even with the sad ending, he created a 'winning culture' within the team. As they didn't replace him mano a mano, they didn't sign anyone to replace him, so you could say that Arkea will have a difficult season in 23. But there are plenty of reasons to prove everyone wrong.

2. Matis & Kevin, the new French favourites

It's a bit funny to say that Arkea is the best at managing young French talent after FDJ, but with this year's neo-pro debutants, we're starting to have to get familiar with it. However, two riders stand out from the young generation, Matis Louvel and Kevin Vauquelin, and both have extended their contracts, so we'll definitely see them in the red and black colours in 2024, too. If they had to be categorised, Matis Louvel is the poor man's Matteo Trentin at this moment, he's good in any kind of one-day race, he's incredibly consistent, whether it's cobbles, hill, flat, sprint, he can surprise everyone with attacks, he's a real all-rounder, a guy who is destined for big things. And Vauquelin is a very good time trialist who has shown very encouraging things on the hills in his first year, I kind of expect him to improve more in the latter, that's what he needs to become a real force in the one-week races. Both will be real box office entertainment in 2023 too!

3. Actually, there is nothing wrong with them, am I right?

I've been thinking a lot about how well this team is structured, as they obviously have to think long term, they start the 3-year UCI cycle and should retain top status until the end. And actually, the maths has been done flawlessly in the squad design. There are a lot of riders who can be good on one-day races, such as Amaury Capiot, Hugo Hofstetter, Luca Mozzato, or Clement Russo, there are others who are good on hills, I'm expecting a lot from Alessandro Verre next year, but among the newcomers, Clement Champoussin is worth mentioning... and also Warren Barguil, who has a big result in him every year, and 2023 will be no exception. The Grand Tour is very likely to have stage hunting of breakaways, it didn't work out so well last year, I think this year could be different. A terribly exciting team, one of my personal favourites and I hope they cause a lot of upsets and have a say in the 'big boys' game.

AG2R La Mondiale

1. Two-pole team, but are these two poles maximised to the top?

What is perhaps the biggest positive about the team is that they have their two franchise leaders. Ben O'Connor has staked everything on the Grand Tours, while Benoit Cosnefroy has staked everything on the Classics. Both seem to be good choices, O'Connor is probably in the top 3, but definitely top 5 on very long, very steady steep, watt-rated climbs, while Cosnefroy has now become a relatively reliable rider who you know will have 2 times every year where he will score you 100s of points in the UCI rankings. However, they both have their shortcomings. O'Connor definitely lacks time trial skills and although he is young, I can't say that he will ever show it, and Cosnefroy still feels a bit inconsistent, although that may be because he doesn't always show up in the numbers. I'm not entirely happy with them, but they're still among the better members.

2. Last dances

There are two legends for whom 2023 might be the absolute last throw. On Greg van Avermaet I had honestly given up in the first half of last season, but since August he has pulled himself together and started producing top 10s at such a level that I have certainly started to believe again in the marriage between him and Ronde van Vlaanderen. Oli Naesen is a similar case, although he started to show a downward trend last year, but on his better days he is still capable of that 'vintage' performance (ps. I looked him up now and he's only 32, it's like he's been on the World Tour half his life, the guy is amazing). Remember, Mathew Hayman won Roubaix at 38 back in the day, so if you take that, they're both still in the aging window, but they're running out of chances, running out of opportunities, their classic squad is at about a constant level or weakening, so it's not going to be easy for them.

3. Where are the youngsters???

But really, where are they? This is a very cardinal question, because the juniors are really one of the best in their age, to say the least. From the 2022 generation, Noa Isidore, Niels Michotte or Maxence Place are riders who would have found themselves in the World Tour team in a few years.. but no, they couldn't keep them, and they wouldn't have had to send them to the adults, they could have stayed in the U23 team for a year or two, setting good numbers and results, and then promotion would have come. The u23 team is no longer full of big household names, and it's hard for the team to sign riders because of the low marketing value, which is strange because they are supposed to have a pretty fair budget. There would be huge untapped potential in this area, but it is feared that it will remain as such in the absence of new management, leaving AG2R in a rut of mediocrity for years to come.

Team Cofidis

1. Will the little grey mice finally put some colour on himself?

If I had to describe Cofidis, I would have a very difficult job, but I will try to do it briefly and concisely. They don't really have any outstanding climbers, they don't have any consistently outstanding sprinters, but they do have riders of a good level from both, and they are doing very well in the one-day races. On the plus side, most of the squad is French, so the local identity has been a fundamental part of the team for many years, even decades now. But what can already be seen as a negative is the lack of youth, compared to the other French teams such as Arkea or FDJ, who can reach out to the 20-23 age group… it is not found at Cofidis. The other is the change in the UCI points system. Even though the team found out about this change at the last minute, it still causes a huge setback in terms of team building, because they now really miss the GC guy who could bring them a lot of points.

2. So… who are these key people?

Let's start with Guillaume Martin. The 29-year-old French philosopher is now in his fourth season of bringing top 40 numbers, which is definitely encouraging, but the majority of those numbers are from one-day races and smaller French tours, which could be attributed to a bit of statpadding. His highest finish in a Grand Tour so far is 8th, and that's down to two things: the downhill, which he's amazingly poor at, and the time trial skills, which he's... also. Obviously, there are physical limitations to this, it's hard to do any of them well with 55 kilos, but there will never be a Grand Tour where you just have to go uphill. As a compromise, the 2023 Tour would be suitable for him, the question is how the form will hold up then. From the sprinters we have to emphasize Bryan Coquard, the Frenchman may not have had an outstanding season in terms of numbers, but the eye is not deceiving and from the past 5 years, he now has perhaps the best form, positioning and team around him, with Simone Consonni and Max Walscheid, they could even go on separate races, they can win there, score points and please everyone including themselves. And then there are the two biggest talents who can add to the identity, have marketing value and even be a target for Jumbo or Ineos in the future. Axel Zingle came out of almost nowhere into the limelight last year, finishing in the top 10 in 15 of 58 days of his racedays and while not all of those were at the highest category events, he showed he has plenty of cocoa powder in the bag. And Victor Lafay is the Cofidis fans' favourite, he's the one with the long-term potential to go far as a one-day classic rider. But they too need to step up a level. If they all do, then it will be an easy quest to maintain their World Tour status, if not, Cofidis will be in for an interesting, tortuous, and challenging 2023.

And then the others...

Because there's life beyond the World Tour. Let's start with the two teams that have been in the top division so far, who will spend the next (as now looks like) 3 years in the ProConti division, and who are approaching this period with two completely different concepts. Lotto-Dstny have almost emptied out all the climbers from their team and are relying on a very young core to try and get back to the elite. The jewel of this core will definitely be Arnaud de Lie. Lescheret's bull has put together a quite unbelievable neo-pro season with 9 wins, almost single-handedly keeping Lotto in the top class. Looking at the underlying numbers, we can see that he didn't get those wins at the highest level, so he still has some work to do on himself and on putting those watts among the best - as he steps up a level to a more difficult peloton, we may expect a slight sophomore slump from him early in the season, but he'll be very much there by the second half of the year. Caleb Ewan is also still on the team, so as incredible as it may sound that he'll be a number two sprinter of the team, it's likely that at least in results that's what will happen. Still, with the sprinter skills he has and the motivation he begins 2023, I can easily see him coming home from the Tour with 2-3 stage wins. In the mountains, you can count on Lennert van Eetvelt, but on his own, without proper support, he will have his work cut out for himself, so we'll see how he handles this situation as a first season rider.

In contrast, Israel-Premier Tech will continue to rely on experience despite a slight rejuvenation. The Michael Woods-Jakob Fuglsang axis remains at the team's disposal, and somehow one gets the feeling that the elimination has given them a new dose of motivation and they will prove themselves with being in good shape for the Grand Tours. They'll be joined by Dylan Teuns, who was signed under dubious circumstances last summer, and Nick Schultz, who escaped at the last minute, and it actually adds up to a pretty decent climber segment (especially when you add in the youngsters Sebastian Berwick and Matthew Riccitello...). The sprinters and classics men are in short supply here, with Corbin Strong and Giacomo Nizzolo taking the sprints and Sep Vanmarcke trying to shed the curse that has completely strangled him for many years now. An interesting squad, I like it much better than last year's, hopefully they will have more success.

Who else should we watch closer from Pro Conti class?

The big names have left Bingoal, but they still have a compact squad for 2023, Malucelli, Floris de Tier or Salby could be good and consistent performers in smaller races. Bolton Equities will attack again next year with last year's Commonwealth Games winner Aaron Gate and U23 World Champs time trial fourth Logan Currie, while Burgos may have real confidence in the one-day skills of newly signed Cyril Barthe. Caja Rural are finally jumping into a season with a very international squad, with Joel Nicolau and Iuri Leitao's burst into the fray to be rooted for. Eolo-Kometa will also be competing on the Giro this year, Vincenzo Albanese had a sensational season last year and if he repeats it, he would definitely be signed soon by a top 6 World Tour team, Lorenzo Fortunato and Erik Fetter are also highly trusted for their further development. Kern Pharma will be looking to move up from last year's Vuelta with a largely unchanged squad, relying on the Galvan-Adria duo, while Basque Euskaltel will also rely on the experienced Bizkarra-Gotzon Martin duo in '23. The biggest asset, Filippo Zana, has left Bardiani, and it is a big question whether any of the talented youngsters (Mulubrhan, Scalco, Colnaghi) can rise to his level. Human Powered Health from the USA has strengthened a lot during the off-season so don't be surprised if, after the women's peloton, they start to produce results in the men's peloton with the Aniolkowski-Double-Weemaes trio among others. Doug Ryder’s new project Q36.5 looks like an interesting project at first level, but it's hard to see who could be a standout there and who can make it in/back to the World Tour. The Italian Corratec team makes its debut in the ProConti line-up, I don't expect much from them, but the Argentinian Tivani will be worth watching, he could be a bright talent on the team. To my surprise, Kamiel Bonneu did not sign for any of the World Tour team from SportVlaanderen, and I think he could be one of the stars of ProConti next year. TotalEnergies, as the only French herald in this category, could be another interesting team, obviously with Sagan as the main rider, but the Simon-Turgis-Burgaudeau trio could win stages in Grand Tour, and somewhere deep inside I really hope that if Uno-X makes it to the Grand Tour this year (they did!!!!), one of the Kristoff-Johannessen-Waerenskjoeld trio will do the same. The gourmet category is ProConti, here you can find the real treasures of the sport!

Prediction time.

Those who know me knows that I love going for bold predictions, so in my pre-season ones, you will find some interesting names – here you go.

Giro d’Italia: Primoz Roglic

Tour de France: Tadej Pogacar

Vuelta a Espana: Enric Mas

Milan – San Remo: Wout van Aert

Ronde van Vlaanderen: Valentin Madouas

Paris-Roubaix: Fred Wright

Liege-Bastogne-Liege: Remco Evenepoel

Il Lombardia: Carlos Rodriguez

World Champs TT: Filippo Ganna

World Champs RR: Mads Pedersen

Well, that’s it. I think it’s time to go racing, hope you’ll all have fun in this crazy 2023 road season!