2022 Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview

It’s time for the second Monument of the year, probably one of the most exciting races of every season – ladies and gentlemen, it’s Ronde van Vlaanderen time!

The route:

This year’s parcours is extremely long, 272,5 km long, containing 18 climbs and 7 cobbled flat sectors, all within 125 kilometres. Riders really need to take care in the first part not to be involved in any types of punctures, crashes, not to waste any kinds of energies, to be fully fit for the second part. Positioning, as always, will be key on the narrow roads of Flanders, but as most of the riders had spent the last month in this area, they are gonna know it by heart.

Key points:

The real race begins with 77 kilometres to go, when riders will tackle the climbs Berg ten Houte and Kanarieberg in a very short time, there are only 5 kilometres between the two climbs, that’s around 6-7 minutes. Both are tough climbs and the first real chance for strong guys to drop some favourites.

Berg ten Houte is 1100 metres, 6,2% gradient, first 500 metres are really tough and crucial. Cobbles are pretty heavy there and there aren’t many tarmac on the sides, so that’s a proper effort. At DDV this Wednesday, Pidcock, van der Poel and Campenaerts paced really hard on this climb, expecting them to be in front again,

Kanarieberg, however, is a stellar effort. 1 km with almost 8% gradient isn’t a joke, especially after the Berg. It isn’t a cobbled climb, so I really expect Pogacar and other pucnheurs (including Benoot and Madouas) to try something here.

Next double is Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg, which they tackle twice, so I’ll gonna save them until the end, so we go on with Koppenberg which is located 45 km from the end. At this point, we should see the group from where we’ll have the winner of the race.

A real beast. Only 550m long, but averages 11%, having an 18% for the middle 200m section, in forestry section where you have literally no places for any mistakes, punctures. Alaphilippe attacked here last year, but you can really imagine how hard this hill is – his leg was almost standing still while attacking from Asgreen and the front group.

Taaienberg next, with 37 to go:

600m as well, a bit milder than Koppenberg, but still dangerous. There is a left-hander at the 200m sign which leads us to the steeper cobbled section – with no run-off area, this is also a really good spot for attacks. van der Poel and Asgreen were the strongest last year here, but as you see on their faces, it really needs a monster effort to distance people in Taaienberg.

Oude Kruisberg, 26 to go.

Long, but not the hardest. Still, after 245 kilometres in the legs, it is gonna be a decent effort. Middle part is cobbled and important to be in a good position, although it is highly unlikely that a group of more than 10 people will arrive in front at this point.

The final showdown with Oude Kwaremont (2km 4,6%) & Paterberg (400m 13%)

Two climbs that could not be more different from each other. On Kwaremont, around 100 000 fans will cheer on the riders, the atmosphere is absolutely insane along the climb, and the amount of Belgian lagers consumed during the day can be record high – due to the first non-restriction race since 2019. Kwaremont is really suitable for the van der Poel-type of riders, you can really pace here and take huge gaps. Paterberg, on the other hand, is short, but extremely steep. In E3 Classic, riders could use the tarmac part on the edge, which made life easier, I kinda hope this won’t be available tomorrow, just like in 2016, when Sagan made the decisive move on this hill:

The weather:

After unexpected snow fell on Flanders on Friday morning, which disrupted many teams’ buildup to the race, we are gonna have a much more pleasant weather tomorrow. Weather forecast models predict an average of 4-5 celsius in the start and around 7 in the afternoon. There might be some showers towards the end of the race, the chance of it is around 25%, but if it happens, it’s surely gonna have an important effort to the race. Wind will be weak, 3-4 m/s from N, which means a tailwind at Berg ten Houte and most of Kwaremont, while headwind at Koppenberg and Paterberg – cross-headwind until the finish, which is a bit worse for those who want to win solo.

Riders to watch:

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix)

The undisputed favourite according to the odds. His legs are still not in 100% conditions, we saw him limping at Coppi e Bartali and in Dwars door Vlanderen as well. He won Dwars on Wednesday, he looked great, he had all the power to sprint, but that was a 200km race, and we have a 270km race now. I feel he really wants a payback for last year, where Asgreen beat him in a sprint, he does not want to take anyone to a sprint situation this year. If he wins, it is gonna be from a solo. It is worth mentioning Alpecin as a team, too, because they are strong. Jasper Philipsen, one of the best sprinters of the world will be working for Mathieu while Vermeersch, Gogl or Dillier will be a useful domestique for the cobbles. One thing is sure, if nothing serious happens, he will have a shot at winning.

Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)

First Ronde for the Slovenian superstar and he already starts as the second favourite. He already got a bit of a taste of Belgian cobbles at Dwars door Vlaanderen, where he finished 10th, but he was caught up in a crash at an unfortunate time, which ultimately prevented him to fight for the top spots. He is really strong, he has a tendency to go well in cold, and is a master of races where he makes his debut – won Strade Bianche and finished 5th in Milan-Sanremo this year. Problem is: he has a relatively weak team – only Matteo Trentin can help him significantly in the final part of race.

Kasper Asgreen (Quick Step-Alpha Vinyl)

The defending champion. Quick Step has had problems in the past weeks with injuries and illnesses, Asgreen was also involved. After his exceptional Strade podium, he disappeared a bit, he had some weaker rides last week. Don’t really know his real conditions, but I expect him to be on his top tomorrow. Quick Step has a good team finally for this race, but I doubt, that regarding of the current state, they will win this race, I just can’t see it at this point, there were no promising classics performance from them in the last 10 days…

Thomas Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers)

My favourite. Suffered from illness for a while, but as he returned, he already brought a podium home on Wednesday, and not only because of the result itself, but also because of his confidence on the bike made me confident that he will do well in Oudenaarde. His team is also stellar, Jhonatan Narvaez and Dylan van Baarle are two guys who can pace and in certain scenarios could also fight for the victory. INEOS has never looked this good in cobbles and this superiority might manifest in some victories really soon, can tomorrow be the grand day?

Christophe Laporte & Tiesj Benoot (Team Jumbo-Visma)

First thing first, wishing a speedy recovery to Wout van Aert, who will miss the race due to a positive COVID-test. This changed the roles of the team, which has now 2 co-leaders, and they are really different from each other. Laporte is better in a situation when it comes to sprint, while Benoot could go all alone and need to go all alone to be able to win tomorrow. Who is their better chance? Maybe Benoot, he is a better classics rider historically. But still, Jumbo’s chances aren’t lost.

Stefan Kueng (FDJ)

King Kueng has been the most consistent rider of this Classics season so far. 12th in Omloop, 6th in E3 Classic, 3rd in Dwars door Vlaanderen – if we continue the line, he is gonna win tomorrow. I don’t know if it happens, but FDJ has finally a stellar classics team. Valentin Madouas is the surprise of the year with some amazing efforts on climbs and neo-pro Lewis Askey is also a really useful addition for the lineup. I hope they will reach a podium at least.

We need to mention other riders here, just in short details. Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) has been preparing for this race for a long time, longer route will boost the chances of the former World Champion, I wish he would be in a perfect shape. Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious) can do the SanRemo-Flanders double which would be pretty unique, the last rider who did it was a certain Eddy Merckx in 1975, Moho on a cold day can really achieve this feature, I believe in him. Greg van Avermaet (Ag2r) needs to be mentioned among the favourites, he has never won on his home turf, it can change this year, though…

Prediction:

Thomas Pidcock will win his first monument tomorrow. He is flying at the moment and cyclocross-type conditions will really suit him.